Why Vav assembly bypoll is a prestige battle for Gujarat Congress, local satraps

Bypolls are usually seen with passing interest, but Gujarat’s Vav assembly seat, vacated by Banaskantha’s Congress MP Geniben Thakor, is emerging as a classic complex mix of caste politics and BJP factionalism—in many ways a microcosmic mirror of what is happening at several other places in the state.
The assembly seat won by Thakor in 2022 fell vacant when the feisty first-time Lok Sabha contestant this year broke the BJP’s two-term unbeaten run of bagging all 26 parliamentary seats in Gujarat by winning from Banaskantha.
The BJP has fielded Swaroopji Thakor against the Congress’s Gulabsinh Rajput. But the pitch has been queered by BJP rebel Mavjibhai Patel, who is contesting as an Independent and is expected to damage the party’s vote-share. BJP sources in north Gujarat are baffled as to how after losing the Lok Sabha seat, their party ignored a strong community leader in ticket distribution.
This has given way to speculation doing the rounds for over two years that Patel has the BJP’s covert support to undercut Shankar Chaudhary, the party MLA from neighbouring Tharad constituency whose towering influence casts a shadow on all seats in Banaskantha district. Chaudhary was appointed speaker of the Gujarat legislative assembly in 2022, making him ineligible for active campaigning during the Lok Sabha polls this year.
The Banaskantha region is dominated by the dairy industry and farming. Chaudhary is also the chairman of Banas Dairy, the biggest employer in the region and one of Asia’s largest milk producers. However, the caste factor dominates voter preferences. The seat has some 310,000 votes, including 44,000 votes of the Thakors, 41,000 of Rajput, 40,000 of Chaudharys and 30,000 Dalit community votes.
The Chaudharys and Rajputs, considered forward communities, are broadly seen as loyal to the BJP, while the Thakors and Dalits align with the Congress. This time, with Geniben’s victory fresh in mind, the Thakor votes are not expected to split while a Rajput candidate may pull the community’s votes for the Congress.
Mavjibhai is an Anjana Patel, meaning he belongs to the Chaudhary community. Sources in the region confide that the simmering undercurrent that the BJP is attempting to undermine Shankar Chaudhary could drive his loyal community voters away from the BJP’s Thakor candidate.
The Vav by-election will be held on November 13; results will be declared on November 23. Over the Diwali weekend, chief minister Bhupendra Patel and other senior ministers arrived in the constituency to campaign for the BJP candidate while Congress state president Shaktisinh Gohil and chief of the legislative party Amit Chavda have had good turnouts in their rallies. At the same time, it is learnt that Mavjibhai’s rallies too are drawing substantial crowds and the attention of both the BJP and the Congress.
The Congress had won 17 of the 182 seats in the assembly polls in 2022. Of the eight won in north Gujarat, four were from Banaskantha—its single-largest tally in a district. With the Congress regaining some buoyancy in Gujarat by winning at least one of the 26 Lok Sabha seats this year, both the grand old party and rival BJP are investing all their might in the upcoming bypoll to make a definitive statement about their political standing.
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